What are the determinants of refugee initiatives?
Christopher Cosler and Lisa Schmid
December 4, 2015
Introduction
Refugees Welcome
Refugee Initiatives
… in Germany 
Refugee Initiatives
… in Berlin 
Refugee Initiatives
… the example of “Moabit hilft” in Berlin Moabit 
Theory and Hypotheses
We test for common determinants of political participation used in the social capital theory:
- Age (+)
- Gender (males +)
- Education (+)
- GDP per capita (+)
- Unemployment rate (-)
Theory and Hypotheses
Furthermore, we control for
- Population density (“city effect”)
- Number of refugees per district (“need hypothesis”)
- East/West Germany
- Voter turnour (catch all variable for political participation)
Data Sources
- ProAsyl map
- German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy
- German Federal Statistical Office
- German Regional Statistical Offices
Dependent variable

Descriptive Statistics
East-West 
Descriptive Statistics
East-West 
Descriptive Statistics
Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) 
Descriptive Statistics
Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) 
Descriptive Statistics
Voter Turnout 
Descriptive Statistics
Voter Turnout 
Regression

Predicted Number of Initiatives
East-West Divide

Age

GDP per capita

Gender

Voter Turnout

Conclusion - Suprising
- Negative effect age
- Negative effect male ratio
- High number of refugee initiatives in East-Germany
Conclusion - Expected
- Positive effect turnout
- Positive effect GDP (weak)
- Positive effect cities (weak)
Careful!
Do not make conclusions about individuals
Play with it
Thank you for your attention!