What are the determinants of refugee initiatives?

Christopher Cosler and Lisa Schmid

December 4, 2015

Introduction

Refugees Welcome
Refugees Welcome

Refugee Initiatives

… in Germany Refugee Initiatives in Berlin

Refugee Initiatives

… in Berlin Refugee Initiatives in Berlin

Refugee Initiatives

… the example of “Moabit hilft” in Berlin Moabit Moabit hilft

Theory and Hypotheses

We test for common determinants of political participation used in the social capital theory:

  • Age (+)
  • Gender (males +)
  • Education (+)
  • GDP per capita (+)
  • Unemployment rate (-)

Theory and Hypotheses

Furthermore, we control for

  • Population density (“city effect”)
  • Number of refugees per district (“need hypothesis”)
  • East/West Germany
  • Voter turnour (catch all variable for political participation)

Data Sources

  • ProAsyl map 1
  • German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy 2
  • German Federal Statistical Office 3
  • German Regional Statistical Offices 4

Dependent variable

Refugee Initiatives per District

Descriptive Statistics

East-West Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

East-West

Descriptive Statistics

Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

Voter Turnout Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

Voter Turnout Histogram of refugee

Regression

Predicted Number of Initiatives

East-West Divide

Histogram of refugee

Age

Histogram of refugee

GDP per capita

Histogram of refugee

Gender

Histogram of refugee

Voter Turnout

Histogram of refugee

Conclusion - Suprising

  • Negative effect age
  • Negative effect male ratio
  • High number of refugee initiatives in East-Germany

Conclusion - Expected

  • Positive effect turnout
  • Positive effect GDP (weak)
  • Positive effect cities (weak)

Careful!

Do not make conclusions about individuals

Play with it

Thank you for your attention!


  1. https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zc6TdvfelKuY.kUvriXoSREXw

  2. http://www.geodatenzentrum.de/geodaten/gdz_rahmen.gdz_div?gdz_spr=deu&gdz_akt_zeile=5&gdz_anz_zeile=1&gdz_unt_zeile=19&gdz_user_id=0

  3. https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online

  4. https://www.regionalstatistik.de/genesis/online